Zambia’s Copper Moment

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Why the global minerals supercycle is sharpening Zambia’s strategic relevance

Copper has re-entered the global spotlight as strategic infrastructure. Copper prices have surged by almost 50 percent in just eight months, breaching US$13,000 per metric tonne for the first time. Against this backdrop, copper was formally added to the United States Critical Minerals List in November 2025, underscoring its growing importance to economic security, the energy transition and technological leadership. For Zambia, Africa’s second-largest copper producer, this alignment marks a significant investment moment.

The price rally reflects a structural shift in the global minerals market. Demand for copper is accelerating as electrification, artificial intelligence and defence-related infrastructure expand, while supply remains constrained by geology, capital intensity and long development timelines. By 2040, global copper demand is projected to reach around 42 million tonnes, while total supply is expected to struggle to exceed 32 million tonnes, implying a persistent annual deficit of roughly 10 million tonnes.

Electric vehicles are a major driver. An electric vehicle requires in average 80 kilograms of copper, compared with 23 kilograms in an internal combustion engine. Artificial intelligence data centres, which are significantly more power-intensive than traditional facilities, are expected to add around two million tonnes annually by 2040. Solar installations, grid expansion and defence applications are projected to contribute a further two to three million tonnes.

Supply growth remains gradual. New copper mines typically take 15 to 20 years from discovery to production. Processing capacity is also concentrated, with China controlling an estimated 50 to 60 percent of global refining. Recycling is expanding but is expected to meet only about one third of the projected demand gap.

In this context, Zambia’s copper endowment carries growing strategic importance. Copper already accounts for roughly 60 percent of Zambia’s export earnings. At prices above US$13,000 per tonne, copper revenues provide a stronger platform for fiscal planning, capital formation and investment mobilisation.

The commodity backdrop coincides with improved macroeconomic indicators. Recent movements suggest a more stable trajectory for the Zambian kwacha, improving planning certainty for investors and reducing the cost of imported capital equipment. Zambia’s decision to allow its IMF programme to expire at the end of January 2026 reflects confidence in domestic revenue generation, supported in large part by mining receipts.

Strong copper prices are supporting the execution and acceleration of existing expansion and upgrade programmes across the Copperbelt and North-Western Province. They also strengthen the case for downstream investment in processing, fabrication, power generation and logistics. These investments support value addition and increase local economic linkages.

Copper-linked revenues also underpin broader infrastructure development. Investment in power generation, particularly solar and grid reinforcement, is accelerating. These sectors themselves rely heavily on copper-intensive infrastructure, reinforcing demand across the value chain and supporting industrial growth.

The recognition of copper as a critical mineral by the United States elevates Zambia’s position within global supply chains. Copper demand is being shaped by long-term policy commitments, technological adoption and energy system transformation. Zambia is positioned as a key supplier to these global systems.

Zambia’s copper moment is defined by a convergence of price dynamics, policy direction and strategic positioning. In an economy increasingly built on electrification and digital infrastructure, copper plays a central role. The country enters 2026 not as a fragile recovery story, but as a supplier of the physical backbone of the digital and energy-transition economy. Zambia’s mineral base places the country firmly within this global investment landscape.

Fact Box: The Copper Supercycle at a Glance

1. Record prices

   Copper prices up by almost 50%, breaching US$13,000/MT in January 2026 up from US$8,500/MT in April 2025

2. Structural demand growth

   Global copper demand projected to reach 42 million tonnes by 2040, driven by electrification, artificial intelligence, renewable energy and EV

3. Supply shortfall emerging

   Current supply capacity is expected to reach only around 32 million MT by 2040, implying a potential annual deficit of roughly 10 million MT

4. Electric vehicles intensify demand

   Electric vehicles require 3 to 4 times more copper than internal combustion vehicles, with large-scale EV adoption adding millions of tonnes of incremental demand

5. Electric vehicles growth

Electric vehicle sales are forecasted to double to 40 – 45m vehicles sold annually by 2030 and 80 – 90m by 2040

6.     AI and data centres add pressure

Power-intensive AI data centres need substantially more copper for wiring, cooling and grid connections, with demand expected to add around 2 million MT by 2040

7. Supply constraints are structural

   New copper mines typically take 15 to 20 years from discovery to production, limiting the industry’s ability to respond quickly to rising demand

8. Geopolitical importance rising

   Copper has been added to the United States Critical Minerals List, underscoring its role in economic security, energy transition and technological competitiveness